50 years of Cuba’s revolution

2009

With threee hurricanes that have devastated up to 30% of agricultural production and countless homes the Cuban government decided to keep a low profile in staging the commemoration of the 50tiest anniversary of the revolution. It took place on January 1st in the Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba and had a mere 3000-invited guests with no foreign dignitaries. Raul Castro’s discourse was mainly focused on the past and did not offer many clues as to where Cube will be heading in the future. Fidel Castro wrote a very short message in the Granma Newspaper congratulating Cuba’s heroic people for the 50tiest anniversary prompting speculation about his ill health and his possible death.

The country has arguably never been politically less isolated in its history since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With the general shift to the left that has taken place in Latin America, a strong relationship with Venezuela that gives Cuba access to cheap oil in exchange for doctors and teachers. The recent invitation of Cuba to the summit of the Latin American and Caribbean countries in Brazil (without the US) that ended with a declaration against the united states economic blockade of the island. The reestablishment of full diplomatic relations with the EU despite the repression against dissidents. All this would seem a very positive development if viewed from the Cuban government standpoint.

The big questions remain. What happens once Fidel Castro dies? If one looks at the cadres of the Cuban revolutionary government composed of the aging historic leaders of the revolution its difficult not to ask about the whereabouts of a possible change of leadership, there seem to be no young people in government. Will the incoming Obama administration ease the economic blockade? Will Raul Castro mild reforms that have raised people’s expectations continue? We have to wait and see.

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